Full Version: Recession Ahead?
From: UncleSteve [#25]
12 Aug 2005
To: Dee (DEENA-ONLY) [#15] 12 Aug 2005
Dee, anyone looking for a job can find one...
It may be off-shore or in India but until "we" stop patronizing companies that ship jobs off-shore including CREDIT CARD issuers (call for information and ask the person answering the phone where they are located IF you can understand them)!
From: Dee (DEENA-ONLY) [#26]
12 Aug 2005
To: UncleSteve [#25] 12 Aug 2005
Steve,
What? You and I agree! By the way I am running a help wanted ad. Last time I did that I got tons of people who called and asked the salary. When I told them they hung up. I hired a guy who was making 49,000.00 at his last job. He was there for 5 years. The company moved to Mexico. I am paying him 9.50 an hour. I fell guilty but I can't afford anymore. I am glad his wife works and has health insurance. I can't afford that either.
I recently got my July electric bill. Our house is about 2000 sq ft. We run the central air most of the time. There are 5 people here. Our bill $671.42.
I usually think the glass is more than half full. I am concerned it is getting emptier.
Dee
From: GBengraver [#27]
12 Aug 2005
To: basehorawards [#19] 12 Aug 2005
Let me get this straight.
We should be sooooooooooooo grateful to the huge oil companies (that have not been willing for 30 years to build one new major refinery to increase oil production) and are at the root of all of these gas price increases that we should give them 14 Billion dollars so they can drill for oil with no financial risk to themselves?
The 14 Billion dollars that came out of your paycheck and mine.
So they can create jobs that pay wages to more little guys that will pay taxes to finance more tax breaks for them.
I don't know about you but I think there must be a better, fairer way.
How many people could you put to work if the govt. gave you a few billion bucks?
EDITED: 12 Aug 2005 by GBENGRAVER
From: Dee (DEENA-ONLY) [#28]
12 Aug 2005
To: GBengraver [#27] 12 Aug 2005
Greg,
Once agin we are on the same page. Do you think it is the Bucks County air?
Dee
From: GBengraver [#29]
12 Aug 2005
To: basehorawards [#19] 12 Aug 2005
By the way, the record for deficits before dubya came around was during the Reagan admin. followed by George the first's record setting deficits.
The economy didn't turn around till Clinton took office, who by the time his two terms were up had the biggest paydown of government debt in the history of our great country, lowest unemployment, and debt was down to 31% of GDP the largest 4 year paydown in history.
By fiscal year 2001 we had a record setting $256 Billion surplus, the fourth consecutive year of surpluses.
All of which has since been squandered.
It seems like such a long time ago.
From: basehorawards [#30]
12 Aug 2005
To: GBengraver [#27] 12 Aug 2005
Welcome to the dark side. That is trickle down economics in a nutshell.
I say cut tax rates again and watch the economy really take off.
The big boys have always had their way as far back as you go in history. Raging against the wind will not make it stop blowing. Even the communists had big boys who got their way. If someone found another way to fuel our economy and put all the oil companies out of business tomorrow guess who would be the big boy then?
The oil companies have not built a new refinery in 30 years - in fact they have closed quite a few of them. They can not build new ones - where would they? In your neighborhood? Where do you volunteer for them to build? No one wants a plant near where they live and the rules and restrictions put in place by local governments make it all but impossible. As for increasing output at the existing refineries; there is a federal law on the books that says that if they want to improve a part of the plant and they cross a very low threshold they then have to comply with the current enviromental standards rather than the ones in effect at original time of construction. The end effect is that they can not afford to spend that kind of money on a fifty or sixty year old plant. So no improvements are made and the old plant continues to chug along on baling wire and chewing gum. Eventually they cost more to run than they produce in revenue and it is not feasible to keep them open. Improving the pollution controls is included in the rules so they can't even reduce their pollution output because it is cost prohibitive. Our government at work - aren't you glad they can give themselves a raise whenever they want?
The value to us as citizens of the tax break to the "evil" oil companies is that the oil and gas reserves that they find here in north america is oil and gas we do not have to buy from other countries that may decide - again - to just stop selling to us (remember the seventies?) Or, look at it this way - if there is only one store selling a neccesity then the owner of that shop can charge whatever he or she wants. If a second shop opens up selling the same product for less then the price must come down at the first store or it will loose business and revenue. If OPEC and the non-OPEC nations see us finding our own sources of oil they also see the demand for their product going down and that will mean less money to them and they will lower their prices. Then, if the speculators go along our gas prices will go down too. Lower prices for oil means lower prices for the plastics we all use everyday.
Alternative energy sources are great. Wind power is a natural here in Kansas. Oops - there are enviromentalists fighting it because the windmills are ugly, spoil the view and no one has figured out how to keep the birds from flying into them. In California there are acres of windmills sitting idle because of the bird issue. On the east coast offshore is a perfect place for wind farms but they are not allowed to build there either because the windmills will spoil the view. The energy bill also includes money for ethanol production from corn - a good alternative to petroleum but guess what? There are people upset with that too! Why should those farmers get tax breaks to grow a crop that if they did not get the tax break for they would not grow to be made into ethanol - a cleaner burning fuel than petroleum. Alternative fuels will work when people demand them rather than demand they not be produced where they might spoil the view.
BTW Would you rather we fought the terrorists on our soil or on theirs? They are going to fight us until they win or they lose. My vote is for using their soil for the battleground and the airwaves, newspapers and the internet to educate the citizens of the countries whose governments support these terrorists that we do not want war and that we do not hate them and that we will help them to build stable governments that will allow them to live free and to prosper. Just as soon as we finish with these guys who want to keep them poor, dumb and oppressed while they enrich themselves and their friends.
From: Harvey only (HARVEY-ONLY) [#31]
12 Aug 2005
To: basehorawards [#30] 12 Aug 2005
I think you mistook what she meant about providing jobs with the billion. Not being in the big leagues might actually produce some trickle down, if we could figure out what to produce.
As for the rest of the post. Whammo, right on the nose!
Now we need to get some of this forum into Congress and some idiots out of there.
From: basehorawards [#32]
12 Aug 2005
To: GBengraver [#29] 12 Aug 2005
There has not been a true surplus in the federal revenue stream since Johnson mixed Social Security revenues in with general revenue. The only way that you can say that we have had a surplus since then is when congress has not yet managed to spend the extra Social Security revenue that has been coming in and giving the treasury non-marketable securities in exchange. Securities that have to be redeemed with - you guessed it - more tax money.
The monies Clinton used to pay down the debt were revenues that came in as a direct consequence of the Reagan tax cuts. When marginal tax rates are cut revenues go up. Look at the revenue charts on the IRS website. Here is a good place to start http://www.irs.gov/taxstats/article/0,,id=115033,00.html It takes a couple of years for the effect to kick in. Sort of like when you swing a pendulum. When it gets to the top of its swing on one side it takes going down before it can go up on the other side. Clinton could have paid down even more debt if he had not raised taxes again. He kept the pendulum from swinging as high as it otherwise would have. That is why he had a recession starting at the end of his eight years.
From: GBengraver [#33]
12 Aug 2005
To: basehorawards [#30] 12 Aug 2005
One of the greatest things about this country is that we are able to freely and openly have these kind of debates.
I really appreciate this forum and what it has to offer (in so many ways).
From: basehorawards [#34]
12 Aug 2005
To: Harvey only (HARVEY-ONLY) [#31] 13 Aug 2005
I am all for getting some of the idiots out of there. I am not a fan of term limits though. I am passionate about my country and want what is best for it. I push people to get involved and to get educated and <u>then</u> to vote. An uneducated vote is a vote for more ignorance. I do not want them to vote in a way I don't like but if they are educated and vote then I am happy. At least that way the people with the good ideas will win rather that the people with the good marketing teams and mudslingers.
Imagine a Congress with people serving their constituents for the better of the nation then go out get educated and get them elected.
From: basehorawards [#35]
12 Aug 2005
To: GBengraver [#33] 13 Aug 2005
From: LG (WAIIB) [#36]
12 Aug 2005
To: basehorawards [#35] 13 Aug 2005
From: basehorawards [#37]
13 Aug 2005
To: LG (WAIIB) [#36] 13 Aug 2005
Basehor is "a little country near Kansas City". (Town motto)
We are located in southern Leavenworth county not far from Kansas City Kansas
From: Liberty [#38]
13 Aug 2005
To: gt350ed [#22] 14 Aug 2005
"What are you basing it on? Example: the housing market is good to "hot" in virtually every market throughout the U.S. Why? Because of demand. Demand is not drying up. Ability to qualify for financing based on overheated prices, maybe, but "demand" is ever-increasing. Why?"
When the mortgage industry is pushing 40 year, interest only loans with a 3-2-1 buydown ARM just to get people qualified - there is a potential bursting of the bubble.
In some markets, nearly half of the real estate contracts written for new constructuion are purely speculative with the buyers having no intention of moving in but rather they are planning to churn the paper.
In any given market, look at the ratio of median home prices to median household income. Anything above 3 or 4 to 1 "could' be indicative of a bubble market. South Florida for example, is exceeding 10 to 1.
If and when the prime climbs to the 10+ range, as has happened previously, the housing and auto markets will come to a screeching halt, combine this with the skyrocketing energy costs and we could easily see unemployement at record highs. Can you say "soup lines?" If your a real doom and gloomer, add a dust bowl era drought to the equation and... a population of over 300 million with one in three households owning a gun.. well I'd rather go engrave a few plaques than think about that one...
One of the key indicators of future potential problems is the credit card industry's push to recoup capital by raising the monthly minimum payments. Since most of these loans are tied to prime, there is no return-on-investment reason for this. It can only be explained as an attempt to cover what they see as potential future losses due to defaults.
In any downturn there are survivors. Planning ahead is not doom and gloom but as much a part of good business management as turning the lights off when you leave a room.
Back to work...
From: sunny (SUNSHINE5555) [#39]
13 Aug 2005
To: ALL
Gosh, I thought I was on one of the doomer boards for a moment :-)
Like most I have felt that "something" is going to give, but what "it" will be or when is something else. I just live a prepared life and try to be optimistic.
From: UncleSteve [#40]
13 Aug 2005
To: sunny (SUNSHINE5555) [#39] 13 Aug 2005
From: Mick [#41]
13 Aug 2005
To: UncleSteve [#40] 13 Aug 2005
From: basehorawards [#42]
13 Aug 2005
To: Mick [#41] 14 Aug 2005
From: LaZerDude (C_BURKE) [#43]
14 Aug 2005
To: Cindy (CINDYM) [#13] 15 Aug 2005
You said.....
Won't happen until you can stop greed and special interests.
From: LaZerDude (C_BURKE) [#44]
14 Aug 2005
To: gt350ed [#22] 14 Aug 2005
Ed,
Thank you for saving my day. I have not logged onto the forum in quite some time, and I was about to jump out the basement window.
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