Full Version: Recession Ahead?
From: basehorawards [#30]
12 Aug 2005
To: GBengraver [#27] 12 Aug 2005
Welcome to the dark side. That is trickle down economics in a nutshell.
I say cut tax rates again and watch the economy really take off.
The big boys have always had their way as far back as you go in history. Raging against the wind will not make it stop blowing. Even the communists had big boys who got their way. If someone found another way to fuel our economy and put all the oil companies out of business tomorrow guess who would be the big boy then?
The oil companies have not built a new refinery in 30 years - in fact they have closed quite a few of them. They can not build new ones - where would they? In your neighborhood? Where do you volunteer for them to build? No one wants a plant near where they live and the rules and restrictions put in place by local governments make it all but impossible. As for increasing output at the existing refineries; there is a federal law on the books that says that if they want to improve a part of the plant and they cross a very low threshold they then have to comply with the current enviromental standards rather than the ones in effect at original time of construction. The end effect is that they can not afford to spend that kind of money on a fifty or sixty year old plant. So no improvements are made and the old plant continues to chug along on baling wire and chewing gum. Eventually they cost more to run than they produce in revenue and it is not feasible to keep them open. Improving the pollution controls is included in the rules so they can't even reduce their pollution output because it is cost prohibitive. Our government at work - aren't you glad they can give themselves a raise whenever they want?
The value to us as citizens of the tax break to the "evil" oil companies is that the oil and gas reserves that they find here in north america is oil and gas we do not have to buy from other countries that may decide - again - to just stop selling to us (remember the seventies?) Or, look at it this way - if there is only one store selling a neccesity then the owner of that shop can charge whatever he or she wants. If a second shop opens up selling the same product for less then the price must come down at the first store or it will loose business and revenue. If OPEC and the non-OPEC nations see us finding our own sources of oil they also see the demand for their product going down and that will mean less money to them and they will lower their prices. Then, if the speculators go along our gas prices will go down too. Lower prices for oil means lower prices for the plastics we all use everyday.
Alternative energy sources are great. Wind power is a natural here in Kansas. Oops - there are enviromentalists fighting it because the windmills are ugly, spoil the view and no one has figured out how to keep the birds from flying into them. In California there are acres of windmills sitting idle because of the bird issue. On the east coast offshore is a perfect place for wind farms but they are not allowed to build there either because the windmills will spoil the view. The energy bill also includes money for ethanol production from corn - a good alternative to petroleum but guess what? There are people upset with that too! Why should those farmers get tax breaks to grow a crop that if they did not get the tax break for they would not grow to be made into ethanol - a cleaner burning fuel than petroleum. Alternative fuels will work when people demand them rather than demand they not be produced where they might spoil the view.
BTW Would you rather we fought the terrorists on our soil or on theirs? They are going to fight us until they win or they lose. My vote is for using their soil for the battleground and the airwaves, newspapers and the internet to educate the citizens of the countries whose governments support these terrorists that we do not want war and that we do not hate them and that we will help them to build stable governments that will allow them to live free and to prosper. Just as soon as we finish with these guys who want to keep them poor, dumb and oppressed while they enrich themselves and their friends.
From: Harvey only (HARVEY-ONLY) [#31]
12 Aug 2005
To: basehorawards [#30] 12 Aug 2005
I think you mistook what she meant about providing jobs with the billion. Not being in the big leagues might actually produce some trickle down, if we could figure out what to produce.
As for the rest of the post. Whammo, right on the nose!
Now we need to get some of this forum into Congress and some idiots out of there.
From: basehorawards [#32]
12 Aug 2005
To: GBengraver [#29] 12 Aug 2005
There has not been a true surplus in the federal revenue stream since Johnson mixed Social Security revenues in with general revenue. The only way that you can say that we have had a surplus since then is when congress has not yet managed to spend the extra Social Security revenue that has been coming in and giving the treasury non-marketable securities in exchange. Securities that have to be redeemed with - you guessed it - more tax money.
The monies Clinton used to pay down the debt were revenues that came in as a direct consequence of the Reagan tax cuts. When marginal tax rates are cut revenues go up. Look at the revenue charts on the IRS website. Here is a good place to start http://www.irs.gov/taxstats/article/0,,id=115033,00.html It takes a couple of years for the effect to kick in. Sort of like when you swing a pendulum. When it gets to the top of its swing on one side it takes going down before it can go up on the other side. Clinton could have paid down even more debt if he had not raised taxes again. He kept the pendulum from swinging as high as it otherwise would have. That is why he had a recession starting at the end of his eight years.
From: GBengraver [#33]
12 Aug 2005
To: basehorawards [#30] 12 Aug 2005
One of the greatest things about this country is that we are able to freely and openly have these kind of debates.
I really appreciate this forum and what it has to offer (in so many ways).
From: basehorawards [#34]
12 Aug 2005
To: Harvey only (HARVEY-ONLY) [#31] 13 Aug 2005
I am all for getting some of the idiots out of there. I am not a fan of term limits though. I am passionate about my country and want what is best for it. I push people to get involved and to get educated and <u>then</u> to vote. An uneducated vote is a vote for more ignorance. I do not want them to vote in a way I don't like but if they are educated and vote then I am happy. At least that way the people with the good ideas will win rather that the people with the good marketing teams and mudslingers.
Imagine a Congress with people serving their constituents for the better of the nation then go out get educated and get them elected.
From: basehorawards [#35]
12 Aug 2005
To: GBengraver [#33] 13 Aug 2005
From: LG (WAIIB) [#36]
12 Aug 2005
To: basehorawards [#35] 13 Aug 2005
From: basehorawards [#37]
13 Aug 2005
To: LG (WAIIB) [#36] 13 Aug 2005
Basehor is "a little country near Kansas City". (Town motto)
We are located in southern Leavenworth county not far from Kansas City Kansas
From: Liberty [#38]
13 Aug 2005
To: gt350ed [#22] 14 Aug 2005
"What are you basing it on? Example: the housing market is good to "hot" in virtually every market throughout the U.S. Why? Because of demand. Demand is not drying up. Ability to qualify for financing based on overheated prices, maybe, but "demand" is ever-increasing. Why?"
When the mortgage industry is pushing 40 year, interest only loans with a 3-2-1 buydown ARM just to get people qualified - there is a potential bursting of the bubble.
In some markets, nearly half of the real estate contracts written for new constructuion are purely speculative with the buyers having no intention of moving in but rather they are planning to churn the paper.
In any given market, look at the ratio of median home prices to median household income. Anything above 3 or 4 to 1 "could' be indicative of a bubble market. South Florida for example, is exceeding 10 to 1.
If and when the prime climbs to the 10+ range, as has happened previously, the housing and auto markets will come to a screeching halt, combine this with the skyrocketing energy costs and we could easily see unemployement at record highs. Can you say "soup lines?" If your a real doom and gloomer, add a dust bowl era drought to the equation and... a population of over 300 million with one in three households owning a gun.. well I'd rather go engrave a few plaques than think about that one...
One of the key indicators of future potential problems is the credit card industry's push to recoup capital by raising the monthly minimum payments. Since most of these loans are tied to prime, there is no return-on-investment reason for this. It can only be explained as an attempt to cover what they see as potential future losses due to defaults.
In any downturn there are survivors. Planning ahead is not doom and gloom but as much a part of good business management as turning the lights off when you leave a room.
Back to work...
From: sunny (SUNSHINE5555) [#39]
13 Aug 2005
To: ALL
Gosh, I thought I was on one of the doomer boards for a moment :-)
Like most I have felt that "something" is going to give, but what "it" will be or when is something else. I just live a prepared life and try to be optimistic.
From: UncleSteve [#40]
13 Aug 2005
To: sunny (SUNSHINE5555) [#39] 13 Aug 2005
From: Mick [#41]
13 Aug 2005
To: UncleSteve [#40] 13 Aug 2005
From: basehorawards [#42]
13 Aug 2005
To: Mick [#41] 14 Aug 2005
From: LaZerDude (C_BURKE) [#43]
14 Aug 2005
To: Cindy (CINDYM) [#13] 15 Aug 2005
You said.....
Won't happen until you can stop greed and special interests.
From: LaZerDude (C_BURKE) [#44]
14 Aug 2005
To: gt350ed [#22] 14 Aug 2005
Ed,
Thank you for saving my day. I have not logged onto the forum in quite some time, and I was about to jump out the basement window.
From: LaZerDude (C_BURKE) [#45]
14 Aug 2005
To: basehorawards [#34] 14 Aug 2005
You said
I agree with you on this and your ideas about people getting educated and voting for the best and brightest......
But the fact remains that special interest, the people with the money to lobby are the ones running this country, NOT our elected officials. We the people have allowed this to happen by not being more involved.
We the people have allowed this seperation. It is "us" and "the Government" we must remember that WE ARE the government. To further exacerbate the problem, We the people are too busy trying to get ahead or keep ourselves above water to actually GET involved.
If one listens to or reads the political rhetoric that goes on, it is always "The republicans did this," "The democrats" did that.... WHEN was the last time you heard ANYONE talk about what is in the BEST interest of WE THE PEOPLE!!!!!!
Unforutnately NOTHING is going to change until that happens and I believe it is up to each and everyone of use to take PERSONAL responsibility for ourselves. I do not, never have and never will rely on social security, it is up to ME to provide for my retirement..... ( just a small example)
I'll get off my soap box now, and go clear the clutter from the basement window so I can jump out
From: LaZerDude (C_BURKE) [#46]
14 Aug 2005
To: Dee (DEENA-ONLY) [#26] 14 Aug 2005
You said.....
Do you have ceiling fans installed in your house? If you do not, you might want to look into it because they will help.
Also, I'm sure Harvey knows about this, there are now solar companies that have developed solar grids for the "little" people and you can actually begin to "sell" power back to the electric company.
Admittedly, it only works if you have enough sunshine, but if you are running your AC that much, it seems you might. It might be something worth looking into. Yes it is expensive "up front" but there ARE substantial tax incentives to do it, AND you WILL recoup the cost in about 8 years.
Another option if you have enough sun, (even in the winter), is solar water heating. The hot water tank is your next biggest energy sucker to your AC. Again a 35% tax credit.
I realize my view may be skewed because of where I live, but if you do have the sunshine, solar is definitely a viable way.
From: LaZerDude (C_BURKE) [#47]
14 Aug 2005
To: ALL
All,
After reading through this long post, I have come to only one conclusion,
I am going to go the beach, and then kill myself.
From: LaZerDude (C_BURKE) [#48]
14 Aug 2005
To: ALL
One last thought,
When I woke up this morning, I counted my fingers 10! My arms 2! My legs 2! Toes 10! I could see, I could breathe, my wife and my friends are here.
LIFE IS GOOD!!!!
From: basehorawards [#49]
14 Aug 2005
To: LaZerDude (C_BURKE) [#45] 14 Aug 2005
Chuck,
You are absolutely correct. The start of the end was when they stopped teaching civics in school. Kids (and a lot of adults )today have such a misunderstanding of how government is supposed to work that it is unbelievable. A couple of years ago my oldest son who was 11 at the time was given a pop quiz with a list of names. The object was to see how many of the students could correctly identify the pres. vice pres. our senators and local rep. and the supreme court justices. My son got 100% and was the only one who got over 50%. His teacher was amazed. I guess he has been listening to my conversations with wifey and in-laws. I was (almost as) equally amazed at how few kids in the class even knew the presidents name. When I was in 5th grade we learned about all our civil servants and wrote letters to them. By high school however (late seventies) I was told I did not have to take History because we were all going to be blown up in a nuclear war so live for today. A lot of the teachers of today are my age so I guess my school was not the only one teaching that nonsense.
I am teaching my kids that they must not surrender the WE THE PEOPLE part of our government. Funny thing is that I am considered a radical by most of my relatives and in-laws. How far we have slipped as a nation. There is such a disconnect from our government that I really think that if you were to go out onto the street and asked people if we are in charge of the government or if the government is in charge of us most people would respond with the later. Never mind that not only are we in charge of the government we ARE the government.
The time is ripe for a third political party. For it to be successful though it will have to stand for individual resposibilty, social justice, a ranking of rights of individual, community, state and then federal (you know how it used to be.) and personal responsibility to do what is right for the people of the country and then the world. Problem with that is there are precious people who could pull that all together and get people to follow them.
Didn't know you had basements out there on the islands. Better not jump out of one though you might get in trouble for traumetizing an earthworm.
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