"What are you basing it on? Example: the housing market is good to "hot" in virtually every market throughout the U.S. Why? Because of demand. Demand is not drying up. Ability to qualify for financing based on overheated prices, maybe, but "demand" is ever-increasing. Why?"
When the mortgage industry is pushing 40 year, interest only loans with a 3-2-1 buydown ARM just to get people qualified - there is a potential bursting of the bubble.
In some markets, nearly half of the real estate contracts written for new constructuion are purely speculative with the buyers having no intention of moving in but rather they are planning to churn the paper.
In any given market, look at the ratio of median home prices to median household income. Anything above 3 or 4 to 1 "could' be indicative of a bubble market. South Florida for example, is exceeding 10 to 1.
If and when the prime climbs to the 10+ range, as has happened previously, the housing and auto markets will come to a screeching halt, combine this with the skyrocketing energy costs and we could easily see unemployement at record highs. Can you say "soup lines?" If your a real doom and gloomer, add a dust bowl era drought to the equation and... a population of over 300 million with one in three households owning a gun.. well I'd rather go engrave a few plaques than think about that one...
One of the key indicators of future potential problems is the credit card industry's push to recoup capital by raising the monthly minimum payments. Since most of these loans are tied to prime, there is no return-on-investment reason for this. It can only be explained as an attempt to cover what they see as potential future losses due to defaults.
In any downturn there are survivors. Planning ahead is not doom and gloom but as much a part of good business management as turning the lights off when you leave a room.
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